The biggest geopolitical risks for 2024

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Happy Monday!

In today’s issue, we mention both Eurasia Group and Davos, which reminds me of some of my favorite encounters in Davos. Spotting Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer at the Piano Bar, running into Sir Richard Branson at a children’s library, meeting Imogen Heap, or giving up my highly coveted single room for actress Gillian Anderson.

Ryan and I have both been lucky enough to spend time at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting — a somewhat strange but exciting place where the year’s agenda is set by global political and business leaders. Will you or your firm be there next week? Let us know what you’ll be up to.

-joel

In today’s issue: Top risks for the year ahead, what to do about ESG, brilliant brands, FTSE’s 40th, lots of Vivace community news & moves, and much, much more.

Top Risks for 2024

Eurasia Group’s annual Top Risks report published today, naming the top three biggest ones for 2024 as:

1. The United States vs. itself

2. Middle East on the brink

3. Partitioned Ukraine

Others include ungoverned AI, Axis of Rogues like Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and even El Niño. Glaringly missing from the list is climate change, which is sure to be debated. (Eurasia Group)

>Angles:

• Does your firm’s 2024 outlook match up with or differ from Eurasia’s?

• How might these inform your editorial coverage strategy?

ESG & DEI

A few years ago, ESG was the biggest buzzword on Wall Street, making appearances in corporate earnings calls, working its way into loads of new funds, and seemingly cementing itself as the future of finance.

Over the past couple of years, particularly in the U.S., that’s shifted, in large part due to intense political polarization and backlash. This piece in the FT last month (gift link) does a nice job summarizing the moment in time ESG finds itself in stateside, which is in stark contrast to the EU.

Also receiving backlash is something closely related to ESG, which is Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI). Leading the pack is Elon Musk, who entered 2024 equating DEI with racism (which entirely misses the point of DEI, we should point out). Fellow billionaire Mark Cuban posted this great thread defending DEI and its role in business. It’s worth a read.

As you can imagine, we have strong thoughts on ESG and where it’s all headed, but we’ll save those for another day.

>Angles

• As the industry figures out what to rebrand ESG as, now is your time to get ahead of the pack and double down.

• There’s a huge opportunity to help shape the future of ESG and ESG investing. How is your firm playing a role?

• There’s also a matter of messaging and narratives. How will you choose to respond, especially to your stakeholders in the U.S.?

Brilliant brands: History

From time to time, we like to showcase brands who are leading the way.

Telling the story of your brand’s history is a fantastic way to connect with audiences on a deeper, emotional level. It can help build trust with customers and shareholders and be a source of pride for employees.

So, who gets a Vivace A* for history? Here’s our top 3 picks. Drop us a line with your history storytelling champion.

1. Wells Fargo (site)
   “Innovation. It’s in our blood.”
   Vivace says: The messaging is so strong and they have their own museum in the heart of San Francisco’s financial district!

2. JPMorgan Chase (site)
   “History is our story.”
   Vivace says: Love the video library. Lost myself for a while there but discovered the Chase logo launched in 1960 was one of the first abstract logos ever used. Still holds up well.

3. HSBC (site)
   “The bank has weathered change in all forms – revolutions, economic crises, new technologies – and adapted to survive."

   Vivace says: Wow! What a rich history website. Great stories of adversity and resilience.

Best of the rest

Happy 40th birthday to the FTSE 100. Are the SDGs a bad idea? The least expensive city in the world. Investors bail on Boeing. Charting Trump vs. Biden. What to watch this year in China’s auto market. U.S. congressional leaders reach an overarching agreement for $1.66 trillion spending bill.

Off the charts

A very cool new Climate Finance Tracker is out (below), describing itself as

Go have a play.

📆 Upcoming events

• Jan 9-12: Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2024 in Las Vegas

• Jan 10: World Economic Forum’s Global Risks report will be published (FT Week Ahead)

• Jan 12:

  • NASA and NOAA release annual assessments of global temperatures (FT Week Ahead)

  • Earnings blitz: Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, JPMorgan Chase, UnitedHealth Group and Wells Fargo (DealBook)

• Jan 13: Taiwan presidential and parliamentary elections

• Jan 15-19: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos - “Rebuilding Trust”

• January 25: 100th anniversary of the first Winter Olympics (FT)

Reminder: 76 democracies will hold elections in 2024. Check out this incredibly handy 2024 Global Election Quick Reference guide compiled by Marshall Manson.

Friends of Vivace: News and views

• Big congratulations to CDP CEO Sherry Madera, who just published her book Navigating Sustainability Data: How Organizations can use ESG Data to Secure Their Future.

• A number of big and exciting job moves spotted in the Vivace Community:

  • Huge congrats to Mona Vernon, who just began as Fidelity Investments’ Head of Human Resources, after 5 years leading Fidelity Labs.

  • One of the smartest guys we know, Rohan Shams, is starting at ICE as Director, Fixed Income and Data Services Marketing.

  • Former Eurasia Group Chief Commerical Officer Alex Kazan is joining Brunswick as Partner and Geopolitical Co-Lead.

  • LSEG’s Jennifer Thomas has been appointed LSEG’s Global Head of Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion. Congrats Jennifer!

  • Tech genius Rob Wright is jumping to Adobe as Technical Account Director.

• For our readers in Chicago: Justine Arscott is hiring a Content Writer/SEO Expert for her team at Praxedo.

Send us your shout-outs, strong opinions, and headlines to include in next week’s edition.

Thanks for joining us this week. Anything we missed? Something we should include next week? Please send all ideas and feedback to [email protected]. 

Spark is a production of Vivace Content, where we help our clients navigate what to say and how to say it every single day. Get in touch if you’d like a no-hassle consultation about how we can help you. Have a great week ahead, and see you next Monday.